Friday – February 1, 2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 304,000 jobs were created in January as the labor market continues to remain on very solid ground. However, there was a large 70,000 downward revision for November and December. But even with that, the three-month job creation average is at a strong 240,000.
The Unemployment Rate ticked up to 4% from 3.9% while the Labor Force Participation Rate rose to 63.2%, the highest since August 2013. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% from December and up a solid 3.2% year-over-year, which matches the annual December reading. Total unemployed, or the U6 number, rose to 8.1% from 7.6%. Overall, this is another solid report.
Manufacturing activity across the U.S. remained strong in January while the U.S. economy grew for the 117th consecutive month. The ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 56.6 in January, above the 53.6 expected. The report read that continued expanding business strength was supported by strong demand and output.
Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide
Rate Update Thursday – January 31, 2019
The partial government shutdown ended last Friday so the delay of sales of newly built homes for November was reported today with a big number. November New Homes Sales jumped 17% from October to an annual rate of 657,000 units, well above the 555,000 expected. However, sales were down 7.7% from November 2017. Across the country, sales jumped 100% in the Northeast, up 30.5% in the Midwest, up 20.6% in the South with a 5.9% decline in the West. There was a six-month supply of homes for sale on the market which is seen as normal. A solid report, though somewhat backward looking due to the delay in reporting the numbers.
Mortgage rates were essentially unchanged in the latest week after the rise seen from January 2018 through November. Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average 4.46% this week with an average 0.50 in points and fees. A year ago this time, the rate was 4.22%. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says, “Purchase applications were down this week after soaring early in the year. However, softening house price appreciation along with increasing inventory of homes on the market – and historically low mortgage rates – should give a boost to the spring homebuying season.”
Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits rose to a near two and a half year high in the latest week. The partial government shutdown could be attributed to the jump in claims. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose 53,000 in the week ended January 26, above the 220,000 expected. The four-week moving average of initial claims, which irons out seasonal abnormalities, rose 5,000 to 220,250.
Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide
Rate Update Wednesday – January 30, 2019
The labor market continues to produce strong numbers while the U.S. economy remains on solid ground. ADP reports that private employment grew by 213,000 in January, well above the 170,000 expected. December was revised lower to 263,000 from 271,000 and also a strong number. “The labor market has continued its pattern of strong growth with little sign of a slowdown in sight. Midsized businesses continue to lead job creation, however the share of jobs was spread a bit more evenly across all company sizes this month,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute.
Contracts signed but not yet closed for home purchases fell again in December, according the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Pending Homes Sales fell 2.2% from November to December and are down nearly 10% from December 2017. It was the lowest December reading since December 2013 and marks 12 straight months of annual declines. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, cited several reasons for the decline in pending sales. “The stock market correction hurt consumer confidence, record high home prices cut into affordability and mortgage rates were higher in October and November for consumers signing contracts in December,” he said.
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reports that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged in the latest week and have remained near current levels for several weeks now. The MBA said the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was at 4.76% in the week ended January 25 with 0.47 in points. Within the report it showed that the refinance index fell 6% while the purchase index fell 2%. The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990.
Courtesy of Mortgage Market Guide
SAN FRANCISCO, Dec. 31, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- The Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco (Bank) announced December 31, 2018, that the 11th District Monthly Weighted Average Cost of Funds Index (“COFI”) for November 2018 is 1.060%. The index for October 2018 was 1.079%.
The COFI is computed from the actual interest expense reported for a given month by the Arizona, California, and Nevada savings institutions members of the Bank that satisfy the Bank’s criteria for inclusion in the COFI (“COFI Reporting Members”). For November 2018, 9 eligible institutions reported COFI data. Changes in interest rates on adjustable rate mortgage loans offered by many financial institutions are tied to changes in the COFI.
Although the Bank makes a good faith effort to be accurate in the calculation and publication of the COFI, the Bank does not warrant, confirm, or guarantee the accuracy of the data it receives from its COFI Reporting Members, the accuracy of the COFI calculation, or the accuracy of the COFI as published. The Bank does not examine the books and records of its COFI Reporting Members for the purpose of confirming the accuracy of the data they deliver to the Bank used to calculate the COFI, and the Bank expressly disclaims all liability that may arise from any use of the COFI or the use of inaccurate data received from its COFI Reporting Members in calculating the COFI. In addition, the Bank expressly disclaims any liability to any person for any inaccuracy in the COFI, regardless of the cause, or for any resulting damages.
The Bank accepts data for the COFI for a given month from the COFI Reporting Members until 12 noon California time on the last business day of the following month and publishes the COFI for that given month based on data received by that time. The Bank will not revise or republish the COFI for a given month based on new or corrected data received after that time and expressly disclaims all liability that may arise as a result. In addition, although the Bank makes a good faith effort to publish the COFI on the last business day of the following month at or after 3 p.m. California time, the Bank does not guarantee that it will always publish the COFI at that date and time, and the Bank expressly disclaims any liability for any delay in publishing the COFI.
Certain corporate activity, such as charter changes or mergers, may cause the Bank to determine that a financial institution no longer qualifies as a COFI Reporting Member and will no longer be included in the COFI. Similarly, if a COFI Reporting Member’s Bank membership is terminated, it will no longer be included in the COFI. The impact of such removals on the COFI will depend entirely on the amount of interest expense and total funds of the entity being removed, and may be significant.
For additional information and disclosures about the calculation of the COFI, removal of a COFI Reporting Member, and other matters concerning the COFI, visit the Bank’s website at www.fhlbsf.com.
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