Uncertainty about the pace of the economic recovery pushed mortgage rates down to another record low this week. The economic outlook is for slower than normal economic growth with low inflation, which is favorable for mortgage rates. The risks of a "double dip" recession and deflation also increase demand for relatively safer investments such as mortgage-backed securities (MBS).
The consensus economic outlook is for slower than average economic growth for several years. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released this week was consistent with this view. GDP increased at a 2.4% annual rate during the second quarter of 2010, which was below the long-term average of about 3.0% per year. With a high Unemployment Rate, below normal economic growth is far from ideal for the labor market, but this is what investors expect. If the economy performs much more poorly, however, the consequences could be severe. The Fed's Bullard stated this week that he is worried about the risk of a deflationary period in the US similar to that of Japan, which would be very undesirable for the economy, but which would likely lead to lower mortgage rates. He emphasized that he thinks that the most likely scenario is for continued modest economic growth.
The best steps to take to stimulate the economy are being highly debated right now. It's not clear whether further monetary stimulus from the Fed would be effective enough to offset the downside effects. As a result, most Fed officials feel that they should not take additional actions unless the economy experiences a major downturn. Given enormous budget deficits, fiscal stimulus (more government spending) is also a highly contested option. The Fed's Fisher pointed to uncertainty about government policies and regulations as a major obstacle for faster growth, but this may not change very quickly. In any case, if the economy follows the expected path for modest economic growth, it may be difficult for the Fed or the government to launch any major new stimulus actions.
The biggest economic event next week will be the important Employment report on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a decrease of about 120K jobs in July. Before the employment data, ISM Manufacturing will be released on Monday. Personal Income will be released on Tuesday, along with Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market. ISM Services is scheduled for Wednesday. Construction Spending and Factory Orders will round out the schedule.
The consensus economic outlook is for slower than average economic growth for several years. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report released this week was consistent with this view. GDP increased at a 2.4% annual rate during the second quarter of 2010, which was below the long-term average of about 3.0% per year. With a high Unemployment Rate, below normal economic growth is far from ideal for the labor market, but this is what investors expect. If the economy performs much more poorly, however, the consequences could be severe. The Fed's Bullard stated this week that he is worried about the risk of a deflationary period in the US similar to that of Japan, which would be very undesirable for the economy, but which would likely lead to lower mortgage rates. He emphasized that he thinks that the most likely scenario is for continued modest economic growth.
The best steps to take to stimulate the economy are being highly debated right now. It's not clear whether further monetary stimulus from the Fed would be effective enough to offset the downside effects. As a result, most Fed officials feel that they should not take additional actions unless the economy experiences a major downturn. Given enormous budget deficits, fiscal stimulus (more government spending) is also a highly contested option. The Fed's Fisher pointed to uncertainty about government policies and regulations as a major obstacle for faster growth, but this may not change very quickly. In any case, if the economy follows the expected path for modest economic growth, it may be difficult for the Fed or the government to launch any major new stimulus actions.
The biggest economic event next week will be the important Employment report on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Early estimates are for a decrease of about 120K jobs in July. Before the employment data, ISM Manufacturing will be released on Monday. Personal Income will be released on Tuesday, along with Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market. ISM Services is scheduled for Wednesday. Construction Spending and Factory Orders will round out the schedule.
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