Arizona's population: 6.4 mil

Arizona will gain a ninth seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2012 elections, a result of being the second-fastest-growing state in the nation over the past decade, according to the first release of 2010 census data Tuesday.

The final tally, however, may disappoint those who hoped Arizona's growth surge for much of the decade would yield an even larger share of federal funding and two additional seats, as in 2000.

The housing bust, the Great Recession and efforts to drive out illegal immigrants combined to rein in the galloping pace of population growth in recent years, helping keep Arizona's count well below projections, experts said.

Still, for those who like growth's economic pluses, the 2010 census was another milestone in the state's ascendancy.

The tally, pegged to April 1, showed Arizona's population totaled 6.4 million, a 25 percent gain since 2000. Only Nevada grew faster. The U.S. Census Bureau had previously estimated Arizona's population at more than 6.6 million.

As it turned out, Arizona fell 328,000 residents shy of gaining a second congressional seat.

Arizona's voice in Washington will get stronger with the 2012 elections; its electoral votes in that year's presidential election will increase to 11 from 10.

The nation's population was officially 308,745,538, according to the census. The 9.7 percent growth nationally since 2000, as well as Arizona's growth, was the slowest pace since the 1940 census. Growth slowed during the Great Depression.

In 2012, Arizona's congressional delegation up for election will grow to nine from eight members, giving the state added clout in Washington and more weight in presidential politics. The relative population gains also mean Arizona will collect a greater share of federal grants, which now top more than $400 billion annually.

Arizona's leaders welcomed the news Tuesday.

With the 25 percent growth, "Arizona has positioned itself to be the place for corporations looking for a better operating environment to collaborate and grow," Gov. Jan Brewer's office said in a written statement.

"Poised and ready to be the economic center of the West, the Arizona Commerce Authority's mission is to attract new companies and corporations that will allow Arizona to compete on the global stage."

The census data released Tuesday don't detail city or county populations. That information will be released starting in February, as states turn to the contentious matter of redrawing state legislative and congressional districts based on the new data.

Some experts think the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, which hasn't been selected, will create the new congressional district in a high-growth area of Maricopa or Pinal county.

Tailing off

Because the census counts all residents, not just citizens or legal immigrants, measures that cracked down on illegal immigration may have hurt Arizona's population figures.

Many illegal immigrants left before the April census. Others who stayed may have been more unlikely than ever to participate out of fear of being deported or jailed.

The Pew Hispanic Center and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security separately noted that Arizona's illegal-immigrant population declined by 100,000 from 2008 to 2009, although their estimated counts ranged from 375,000 to 460,000.

The economic downturn, however, also likely had a similar impact on population growth.

From 2001 to 2007, Arizona added an average 170,000 new residents annually, according to census estimates released each year during the decade. As it turned out, the state's growth for the whole decade was about 128,000 annually, according to the census.

It's unclear whether the earlier estimates were flawed or the effects of the recession on growth were more profound than previously known.

Other states hit hard by the housing collapse, such as California, Florida and Nevada, still managed to grow compared with their 2009 estimated populations.

Clark Bensen, president of Polidata, a Virginia-based political-data-analysis firm, said Arizona was among the states with the highest discrepancies between projected growth and actual population.

"Arizona was clearly much lower down than what we thought it was going to be," Bensen said. "Georgia was also much lower than we thought it was going to be, as was New York."

Demographers will dig deeper for answers, but housing is a leading culprit.

"If the housing market hadn't collapsed the way it did, you would have seen the migration into Arizona continue," said Andrew Smith, a political-science professor at the University of New Hampshire.

Some suspect Arizona's growth may have been overstated all along, not properly recognizing many homes as a secondary residence or accounting for projects that got under way but were never completed.

Sources of growth

The formal count confirms what the state's residents have known for the past 60 years: Arizona, like most of the West, is growing much faster than the nation as a whole. Since 1950, only Nevada has grown faster. Over the past decade, both states led the nation again.

Annual Census Bureau estimates have spotlighted the main reasons for Arizona's growth since 2000.

Hispanics are the fastest-growing demographic group in the state, as well as in the country.

In 2000, 25 percent of the state's residents were Hispanic, compared with 13 percent nationally. The most recent estimates released by the Census Bureau last week indicate 30 percent of Arizonans are Hispanic, while the U.S. average grew at a slower pace: 15 percent.

The state had an estimated 1.9 million Hispanic residents by the end of the decade, about 586,000 more than in 2000.

It's unclear whether the growth in Hispanics might benefit Democrats when the extra congressional district is created.

Arizona also remained a magnet for residents of other states.

Over the past 10 years, only Florida and Texas added more residents from other states than Arizona, according to estimates.

by Ronald J. Hansen The Arizona Republic Dec. 22, 2010 12:00 AM




Arizona's population: 6.4 mil