Experts offer varied housing outlooks

Housing-market watchers are searching for signs Phoenix's five-year housing crash is near an end.

There's lot of real-estate information out there with different forecasts. Several reports show the market improving, and prices inching up this year. But there's also research implying the crash isn't over.

Data from Phoenix groups the Cromford Report and the Information Market:

- Home sales were up 3.5 percent in May over April.

- Pending sales were almost flat in May from April, signaling June could be another good month.

- Listings continue to fall and are down almost 10 percent from May.

- Both pre-foreclosures and foreclosures are down.

The news isn't as good for the new-home market, which must still compete with foreclosures.

RL Brown and Greg Burger's latest "Phoenix Housing Market Letter" tracked nearly 600 new-home permits in the Phoenix area, which is this year's norm for the market.

The report states the homebuilding industry, which was once the driver of Phoenix's economy, won't be healthy again until the economy adds 300,000 jobs.

The less-upbeat forecast comes from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Services Price Index. The data, based on pending sales, show metro Phoenix's median home price could fall to $106,000 in July and $97,000 in August.

If you read this column last week, you will know that the region's median price has been holding steady at about $115,000 for the past six months.

Meanwhile, former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin's recent $1.7 million Scottsdale home purchase is drawing more attention.

A Massachusetts official and mortgage-fraud investigator believes a "robosigner" was involved in Palin's deal.

Several Arizona real-estate experts believe Palin's title is clear and legal and say they need more evidence of any illegal signing.

by Catherine Reagor The Arizona Republic Jun. 22, 2011 12:00 AM




Experts offer varied housing outlooks