Sunday, February 8, 2015

Don’t assume strong jobs numbers will trigger Fed rate liftoff

The U.S. 10-year T-note has jumped a quarter-percent in four days, half of the springboard this morning on wild news from the job market. Mortgage damage is limited, low-fee deals still just under 4 percent.

The first Friday each month brings the immediately prior-month count of new jobs. And revisions of prior months, holy smokes. The January figure was above forecast, 257,000 jobs gained, but nothing exciting. However, November was revised from a gain of 353,000 to 423,000, and December from 252,000 to 329,000 — the best three months in 17 years.

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